Monday, December 31, 2018

You Can Read Me Now In US Naval Institute Blog.

Russian Navy, Mission Found?

You may read my new piece on some doctrine-technology issues in today's USNI Blog post. Link is below. 

Let's Try Q & A And Whatever Else Sticky Post

Here is the post which I will try to keep sticky for people to ask questions and share their thoughts which are not on topic. This, I think is known as Open Thread. Fire away.

You May Read Me on Unz Review Too.

1. I got my first piece published on Unz Review today, so you may check it out there

2. You can read my piece on some peculiarities of Russo-Chinese "alliance" at Unz Review. Here:

The Russo-Chinese "Alliance" Explained 

3. Here is the latest One. 

Russia's Stand-Off Capability: The 800 Pound Gorilla in Syria

4. On INF Treaty.   

 The Sand Castle INF Treaty

5. New piece on geopolitics and navalism.

The Russo-Chinese "Alliance" Revisited  

6. My new piece on Putin's speech came out today at Unz Review. 

The Implications of Russia's New Weapon Systems

Thursday, May 17, 2018

Travelling

In Moscow currently--muggy, very warm and as usual bat shit crazy. Got our luggage lost in JFK, missed our connection to Aeroflot due to horrendous weather in NYC. Trains, Planes, Automobiles--all the way. Will try to keep updated as much as I can.

Monday, May 14, 2018

So That Is What Called "Christian" In America.

The level of delusion, not to mention of smugness of this "scholar" of international relations and of theology is off the charts. Especially against the background of 55 Palestinians killed and 2,500+ wounded today

Fox News Host: Trump Fulfilled Biblical Prophecy By Moving U.S. Embassy To Jerusalem

These are the "grounds" upon which the whole US foreign policy is built--finding parallels, nay--direct relations to some Biblical kings. And we all know that US Congress, which is in the pockets of and is run by American Israeli Lobby (plus Saudis), labored day and night for more than 30 years to fulfill some Biblical prophesy. It took Donald Trump (and his rather pro-Israeli closest keen) to oblige. I can totally see the future of US foreign policy being built upon consultations with California Psychics (2.99 a minute of "reading") and eventually being totally based on Voodoo practices. 

Yet, one can not close the eyes on the fact of a real massacre of Palestinians while US-Israeli (soon to be completely indistinguishable) luminaries were opening US Jerusalem Embassy. It is also rather fascinating observing the speed with which the news of this atrocity by "valiant" IDF simply disappeared from Yahoo News page featured news of the day--I think killing of scores of people and then wounding them in thousands is a big fvcking news--it is a war crime. Yet, those news literally--evaporated after trending for an hour, two? 

Things are getting hot in the ME, they will get even hotter that is until Israel lobby will not run the US completely into ground (it almost succeeded now) or real Armageddon will happen and, unlike this bimbo "judge" from FOX, I know one really serious fact--the physical impact of the, say, 600 kiloton warhead on the vicinity of some important object is such, that this object and its vicinity have no use whatsoever for a long period of time--they cease to exist. But as long as the "prophesy" is fulfilled, right? Don't listen to me, though, here is an opinion of an excellent military professional, Arabist and specialist in the area. 
So, Pirro, who is a practicing Catholic, sure as hell has a peculiar sense of justice (lawyer, of course she is) and interpretation of Bible where, if my Alzheimer doesn't fail me, not a word is written about US Embassy's move to Jerusalem as being some fulfillment of some "prophesy", but then again, what do you expect from some TV bimbo who would feel herself in her proper place inside American so called Christian Zionist cabal--main, so called Christian, enablers of neocon agenda in the US. After all, we all know Jesus was an American. 

Moving Stuff.

Stumbled upon this interesting piece and discovered for myself that the situation with US merchant fleet is even grimmer than I expected.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article210623279.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article210623279.html#storylink=cpy
Obviously, the United States is a SLOC-dependent nation but, of course, naval, that is military, considerations are also at a prime and reflect a rather moribund concept of US Armed Forces fighting some conflict which would require a steady supply train of merchant marine vessels to Europe. It is a moribund doctrine since, while implying that US will be fighting in Europe (a suicidal scenario), presumably Russia, and will require an intense operations on Atlantic SLOCs, forgets how things changed since the good ol' Cold War 1.0. It doesn't mean that Russia will not try to interdict those Atlantic SLOCs, but as even some US experts admit:
Some experts said that in a world of hypersonic missiles, laser satellites and smart bombs, discussion of ships and long land wars may seem obsolete.
“People today don’t have the same sense that they did in the 1950s or before then of the possibility of a large-scale conflict. They say, ‘Uh-uh, no way,’” said Seth Cropsey, a former deputy undersecretary of the Navy now affiliated with the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington. For his part, Buzby said future conflicts will carry additional risk if the Pentagon must send cargo on foreign flagged vessels – especially if enemy vessels try to stop the supplies.
“What other country is going to want to stand up and say, ‘Yeah, I’ll carry American stuff’ and get potentially shot at?” Buzby asked.
It has to be stated very clearly that the United States simply has no real resources to fight any REAL war against Russia in Europe, because:

1. Russians are absolutely not interested, nor intent, in attacking, or invading, or what have you, anything in Europe unless, see below...

2. NATO commits suicide and does attack Russia, as some people in D.C. and Brussels are convinced they can. Well, in this case no amount of supplies will help them. US simply has no military hardware for sustaining a large conventional combined arms war against such peer as Russia. Why so--is a separate issue here.

3. Russia is certainly not going to interdict Atlantic SLOCs in a peace time.

Reality, however, is rather simple and reduces all this strategic maritime (mambo-jumbo) talk to a few simple facts:

1. Mediterranean is already largely (Eastern and Central parts) "closed" for any combat activity and in case of real war (God forbids) will be closed up to Majorca or even Gibraltar by merely deploying a squadron of MiG-31K (yes, that is official now--MiG-31K)  with Kinzhal to Khmeimim Base in Syria. 

2. Northern "approaches" are also "controllable" both on water and on land by a variety of means ranging from already proverbial Kinzhal to a variety of stand-off land and ship attack weapons carried both by Russian Navy and VKS. 

So, one may ask, what's left then for US Merchant Marine? The answer is simple--get competitive and try, by whatever means necessary, to restore American civil shipbuilding industry. In the end, the United States has some very legitimate commercial interests which are tied to SLOCs and nobody, at least not in the Atlantic, is going to mess with them. The faster this delusion that US can fight the war in Europe will be dispelled the better it will be for the shipbuilding industry. For now, however, this is a situation:
One move is afoot to stimulate shipyards by again requiring some energy exports to sail on U.S. flag vessels. Garamendi said he will introduce a bill in the House later this month that would require a growing percentage of LNG and other energy exports to move on U.S.-built ships, starting at only 1 percent and slowly rising to 30 percent.
“We would simultaneously rebuild the American fleet and the ability of our shipyards to produce blue water ships,” Garamendi said.
Shippers said the 2015 end to the ban on U.S. energy exports hit them hard.
“It caused a huge reduction in the demand for American-flagged tankers. But nobody ever talks about that stuff in Congress,” said Crowley, who called the move “highly disruptive.”
“Some companies scrapped ships,” he added.
His own company laid up two tankers for up to a year for lack of work.
“Everybody suffered because the revenue per ship dropped dramatically because there was more capacity,” Crowley said.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article210623279.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article210623279.html#storylink=cpy
So, it is yet to be seen if the US, once mighty, merchant shipbuilding industry and Merchant Marine will recover, but there is very little doubt that this, unlike many insanely dubious and useless military programs, is a worthy goal to pursue. I, somehow, prefer economic competition to military one. As Garamendi's Bill state:

I have some news for Garamendi, however, "most powerful nations in the world" do not have 99% of their trade traveling on foreign ships. The faster this will be understood and BS mantras of American exceptionalism be dropped--the faster this nation will find much needed real economic recovery.

Friday, May 11, 2018

When American Civilization Is Going To be Dug Up...

Bat Out Of Hell III will be one of those pieces of music which is a masterpiece which nobody wants to recognize. But then, definition of a great music by Peter Gabriel when the hair get straight up and one gets goose bumps from music, is exactly what Meatloaf's 2006 Album delivered. 


Come to think about it--it is the greatest rock-opera of the age. 


And, yes, THIS--Celine Dion screamed it, Meat sang it and my hair stood up and goosebumps... One of the greatest Rock-albums of all time. The Monster Is Loose...


Ah, yes, this if Friday....

 

About Immortal Regiment Again...

The whole world marches--from Russia, France, USA, Israel, Serbia, Great Britain, Ukraine... When this will be grasped....

 

So, Was Financial Times Right?



It is sometimes difficult to convey to many people who reside in Manichean world that the world is not Manichean and has a huge variety of shades and colors, this world also doesn't move linearly. The rumor has it now that Mr. Kudrin was offered and accepted a job of the head of the Russia's Accounting Chamber—a close relative of the US Government Accountability Office. So, was the Financial Times then right about Kudrin being offered some important government post or, as NYT (known for its "competence" in Russian affairs, wink, wink) elaborated:


Pay attention to what all this cabal of Western media wants—they want Kudrin as an "adviser" and as someone who, in effect, guides economic policies in Russia. This is not to speak of West's wet dream of having Russia "easing" (which is tantamount to surrender) so called "tensions" with, primarily, Washington. I have some bad news then for NYT and US rabidly Russophobic policy-makers—Kudrin is not Russian government per se. Why? Very simple:


1. Position of what amounts to American analog of the Comptroller General is not related to any policy-making or "advising" Russia's government, let alone President, for a simple reason—Russia's Accounting Chamber is NOT part of the government and is, as it is in the US, a part of legislative power, that is an organ of the Federal Assembly of Russia. If I wanted to remove Kudrin away from Kremlin and Russian White House (the seat of government) I would have found no better place than put him into this position. After all, this post was offered to him by…State Duma's United Russia party. 


2. Russia's Accounting Chamber has no real power except for making Predstavlenie (literally—Presentation) to Federal Assembly (State Duma + Federation Council) plus it has power to force some specific firms and organizations to properly use funds in accordance to adopted State Budget to formation of which it has virtually no relation. It exists merely to oversee Budget's implementation for Legislative Branch of Russia.

And here comes the main issue of Russia—Russia is NOT the United States where US Congress holds a real power of purse and all US internal politics revolves around the White House and Congress fighting each-other for every penny. This is absolutely NOT the case in Russia because:


a) Putin

b) Putin

c) Putin and Medvedev who threw Kudrin out of government in 2011

d) It is Russia


It is Kremlin which holds an overwhelming power over Duma and long ago turned the process of budget's approval into formality, especially now when Duma will rubber stump anything Kremlin, or Russia's government, under Kremlin's supervision, will present. Why so? Because United Russia party exists as "party of power" in Duma only while it stresses its close association to Vladimir Putin. Once this stops being the case (theoretically), this will be the end of this "party", so they know the hand that feeds them. After all, Putin has his nation behind him, United Russia, well, not so much. 


So, here it is—looks like Kudrin will get this post and will do what he always was good at, when during his tenure as Russia's Finance Minister was called an "accountant". He will count budget money at the places where they are being spent—a perfect job for Kudrin. But here is another question—who "oversees" Accounting Chamber in Russia? Well, do you remember what organization Vladimir Putin is from? Do on-going processes of purging Russia's political top from corrupt people tell us anything? Absolutely. Just last week yet another batch of high level bureaucracy was sent packing. 


So, no, there will be no "negotiations" with the West, there will be no "surrender", nor will there be any Kudrin's "advice" on how to formulate economic strategy. By far more important news are of Dmitry Kozak becoming Vice-Premier responsible for industrial development and energy sector. That, considering the fact of this very competent man being very close to Putin, is one of the indication of proper people getting into the fields which are crucial for Russia's development. 


Yet, as a reminder—still nothing firm was announced yet anyway. Give it a time and carry on with your lives. Will know everything in a due time.  

Thursday, May 10, 2018

Ha, It Was An Inerview After All.

I had a lively exchange with Yvonne Lorenzo on UNZ for a duration of some time recently and Yvonne framed our exchange in a form of interview which she posted on LewRockvell site. Here are some excerpts from Yvonne's piece titled Immortal Regiment. I am also very thankful to Yvonne for such a flattering introduction to my rather mostly unremarkable persona. 
While I’ve never met or spoken to a Russian on any of these topics face-to-face, thanks to Ron Unz’s site and the kindness of Andrei Martyanov, I was able to address questions and have a dialog with someone knowledgeable, a scholar and a gentleman and an officer, who had the patience to respond to me. I wanted to share some of his responses that are posted on Unz.com 
Thank you, Yvonne, again for characterizing me a better man than I am, but especially for documenting some points which otherwise could have disappeared in the vast ocean of discussion boards' threads. Here are some of those points:
Question: Are all the world’s leaders literally or figuratively in league with the devil and we peons are being set up for mass murder?
Andrei Martyanov: No. Not all “leaders” are in the league with the devil and there are many objective factors which influence their behavior. Serious historians (I underscore that–serious) study those fundamental laws and most of them (laws) are well-known and represent no secret whatsoever. We simply observe today a collapse of the liberal world-order, including its economic system (aka liberal capitalism, FIRE economy etc.) which doesn’t work (it never did) and for people who know those laws a lot what is happening today is not a secret, all kinds external, outward manifestations such as diplomatic protocols notwithstanding. It is a turbulent time and it is only natural for many people to react to something which is not really that significant. This is apart from the fact that real diplomacy is done behind tightly closed doors.
Question: The majority of Russians (from what I read on the Saker and observe) are not spiritual, but perhaps more of the population [is] than Americans.
Andrei Martyanov: What goes in Russia under the title of “spirituality” (Duhovnost’) is much more complex phenomenon than what it is in the West which is a euphemism for some kind of religiosity. I underscored many times–the way Russian “history” is written and Russian culture is represented in the West, especially in US, it is a parody, a caricature. Russian spirituality is extremely complex and is, obviously, partially anchored in Orthodoxy in which salvation is for Mir (Community) is what matters really in the end. To understand this re-emerging, in new form, spirituality, without knowing (I underscore–knowing, not being “informed”) Russia’s 20th  Century history is impossible. I may only suggest again to watch Immortal Regiment March on May 9. Here are 800,000 marching in Moscow last year. This year they expect 1 million +.

Wednesday, May 9, 2018

To Understand Russia...

No translation needed here. I saw today in Immortal Regiment March not only all ethnicities of Russia and former USSR, but children and grandchildren of French heroes of the legendary Normandie-Niemen regiment, there was even British MP with the photo of her grand-dad--a veteran of Allied Convoys, there were Americans, Serbs, you name it. The scale of it is massive (more than one million in Moscow alone), the geography--too. And youth, everywhere, they are--the future of Russia. 



 

Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Nothing Unexpected.


As was expected, Donald Trump ended the Iran "Nuclear Deal", thus confirming that US is run by neocons and, generally, by Israel. Obviously, more nations will begin to think twice (if not more) before signing any agreements with the US since they are not worth the paper they are printed on--but that is not really the news anymore.  As one observer put a dramatic spin on the news:


I don't know under what stone this guy was living before but the only question which one is forced to ask is this: America has credibility? I think the "credibility" thing stopped being considered in US political top since Yugoslavia  1999, with it this credibility simply evaporated after Iraq's invasion in 2003. What is interesting in all this, however, is the fact of what is Iran going to do now? For those who think that Iran and Russia have allied relations--they better check their facts. Those relations are not easy and current Iranian top is rather explicitly reserved towards Russia when talks about real money begin. Obviously, till now Iran was very much leaning towards European products and manufacturers. 


Now, that a formal casus belli for Israel's and Saudi (that is US) war (whatever that war might be) on Iran begins to slowly take shape, I want to return to what I wrote 9 months ago:
Well, now Iran gets involved one way or another in a first place and it will be up to Russia, not even China, to ensure that Iran remains standing. Does Israel want to start a land campaign in Syria? I don't know, she sure as hell, together with Saudis, wants to fight to the last American soldier (and pilot) against Iran and here we have to wait and see what Bibi has to say to Putin tomorrow after Victory Day Parade in Moscow.  In related news, US is about to impose another round of sanctions on Russia's Military Industrial Complex--all that, together with killing Iran Deal, despite objections of... get this... James Mattis. Who would have known that the only realist in Trump's Administration will be a combat general with a moniker of a "Mad Dog". Mattis should seriously consider transfer of this title to Mr. Bolton or Nikki Hailey. With Hailey, of course, there will be some issue with appropriate conjugation of the term "Dog", if you know what I mean. 



Meanwhile, judging by Putin's remarks to State Duma today after the vote for confirmation of Medvedev as a Prime Minister, one should have very little doubt where this whole spectacle in D.C. is going since Putin was blunt--Russia is going to end US Dollar in own economy. It also seems that all those talks about US-Russian summit should be put to rest. Meanwhile, May 9 is coming to Russia and this song will be played, and people will stand to it and sing all over Russia in millions tomorrow. 


    
With a Victory Day you all.